Buster’s Brown Blog

March 11, 2009

My initial thoughts on presentations from Fred Destin (Atlas Ventures) and William Reeve (DFJ)

Filed under: Europe, European Tech, Startups — Tags: , , , — busterbuster @ 12:29 am

I just returned to the office from a networking presentation put on by The Up Group, a networking and search firm based here in London.

The event was at an amazing venue in Mayfair and the main attraction was a “debate” and discussion between Fred Destin (Partner at Atlas Venture) and William Reeve (serial entrepreneur – founder of Lovefilm and investor and Venture Partner at DFJ Esprit).  William raised a variety of points in the debate on whether VCs can add value to entrepreneurs, and the point was that Fred was to defend the VC’s corner, while William was to represent entrepreneurs and startup companies.

I have jotted down from memory some of the points they made below, although the majority of them were from Fred Destion (apologies William, in case you ever read this!). William Reeve was great at raising the topics and bouncing the conversation between himself and Fred. However, what I must say is that the discussion was unbelievably riveting, and one of the best panel-type discussions I have had the pleasure to see in person.  And my former colleague Lisa Rodwell, now of moo.com, actually agreed with me (first time that has ever happened).

I believe there will be video coming out soon, so I would encourage you to check back when it is out as I will put a link here!  Really well worth it, and a great event.  See my summary below.

Some thoughts from Fred Destin, paraphrased by me – there were a lot of gems, but this is what I could remember:

  • VCs add the most value through “pattern recognition” – they know what things will work based on past experience, and they can anticipate problems before they occur.  Therefore, Fred surmises that VCs with more experience can add more value as they have more data points to draw upon (one thing that I want to add to this is that I think that if in the past a VC was an “operator” or an entrepreneur, they can likely be even better at “pattern recognition” because nothing beats a combination of front line operational experience combined with “investment” experience and perspective)
  • The more years a VC has under his/her belt, the “simpler” the questions they ask when conducting due diligence.  Although it may come across as so, this is not meant to be patronising, but ultimately the success of any business boils down to a few critical points (is there a market, will consumers buy this, unique & defensible proposition, etc.).  In his earlier days, Fred mentioned that the questions he posed to companies would be more complex, domain specific and involved, but he says he has learned that the basics are really what matter.
  • A VC’s rolodex or contacts are overrated – they do not have the deep vertical network that will help startups, but that they can be extremely useful when it comes to M&A and exits both from introductions, and also in pushing or helping to extract better value from exits
  • It is useful to think about and discuss exit strategies early on as it may affect operating strategy, it identifies the potential acquirors, etc (sometimes even the first board meeting of a company)
  • He has adapted a motto as a VC that he should strive to have “one value added contribution” each quarter for every one of his portfolio companies
  • “Speed” is overrrated, including when comparing yourself to competitors or supposedly “fleeting” opportunities (see the next point).  Fred stressed that startups need to prove the business and gain critical mass before investing in growth or accelerating the plan, as the business needs a concept that is proven and the knowledge to understand the return from the investment
  • PBS (I had to come up with a mnemonic to remember it):
  • o “P” = Prove the model
  • o “B” = Build the business and get critical mass
  • o “S” = Scale the concept
  • The hardest decision a Board member has to make is to know when to start expanding and spending, as opposed to continuing to build critical mass; he stated an example where he decided not to build a salesforce in the US for dailymotion, and instead to conserve cash, which proved to be the wrong decision.  However, it is rare that this more conservative track is the wrong decision, he said.
  • Investing in an entrepreneur is like dating…:  Within 3 minutes a VC decides whether they want to invest in an entrepreneur ; within 10 minutes, whether they want to invest in a business, and then they begin to rationalise to themselves to convince themselves on the viability of the idea…it’s a lot like dating, he said (I wonder if you fully make the analogy, within 3 minutes do you decide whether you want to go on a second date (ahem) with the person, and within 10 minutes whether you want to enter into a longer term relationship with them?) :-)
  • VCs in Europe do not necessarily deserve funding from LPs as the past performance has not been stellar or deserving of more capital.  He actually mentioned this twice….That being said, Fred mentioned that Balderton and Index Ventures are the leading figures of European venture capital, and that his firm Atlas is very fortunate to have raised capital.
  • He mentioned there can be a “herd” mentality with every VC’s strategy being focused on cleantech, cloud computing and another shared sector (I could not make out what he said)
  • The venture community is small in Europe, and he also believes in this economic time, firms are only investing in “barbell” ideas – either those that are super early stage with a killer concept and team, or more established businesses at the other end of the spectrum.  Therefore, there are a lot of businesses (representing the bar), who will not have access to capital, unfortunately.

Posted via email from busterbuster’s posterous

February 21, 2009

Insights from Marc Simoncini of meetic & match.com Europe

Filed under: Europe, European Tech, Startups — busterbuster @ 7:45 pm

My business partner Lopo forwarded me a link to this interview with Marc Simoncini, founder of French dating site meetic which is now not only in over 20 countries (launched in 2002), but also recently acquired the European business of match.com. The video interview was conducted by Loic Le Meur at the leweb 2008 conference.

Click to hear two French people speaking English in French accents - very interesting stuff though!

Click to hear two French people speaking English in French accents - very interesting stuff though!

Below I have summarised the 5-7 things M. Simoncini looks for in a business, as well as other highlights and items he discusses in the video. Worth listening to at least because he sold his first business (a community site called i-France) for close to EUR 200million (granted it was in 2000 and it was to Vivendi), and now meetic is also a huge runaway success with annual revenues in excess of EUR 130m.

Marc Simoncini’s Five (to Seven) Attributes in a Desirable Business

1. You don’t have to pay for content as all of it is user-generated

2. You have to have a subscription model (a reliance on advertising as the main revenue source is too variable and out of your control)

3. The site is user-curated and moderated, making the site “self-controlled” and essentially free, or low cost to maintain

4. The wesbite and proposition can be localised quite easily and can travel and work in multiple countries

5. The business can become a a leader in multiple markets and in a region

6. The site should have “network effects” that therefore increase the barriers to entry every day

7. The management people working there have to love the business and have passion for it

Other things that he said:

  • He feels that you need a strong brand awareness in every market you are in, which is why he invests significantly in above the line brand marketing…
  • While there may be tons of competititive dating services that are free, if he had a choice between going to dance at the most expensive nightclub in NY vs. the free one, he would choose the one that he has to pay to get into because the people there will be more involved, more serious, and the venue will likely have better security (I personally would choose the one that’s harder to get into cause it would be more exclusive, but many times its not that much more expensive…so I think there is not necessarily a correlation between price and quality…relating this to the internet world, I think sites like vente-prive or exclusive invite only dating sites may better recreate exclusivity…)
  • According to match.com, the average relationship lasts 18 months, so his current customers will be back soon, even if they find love
  • He bashed the French government and press for its lack of support in encouraging entrepreneurship

December 21, 2008

When is the best time to start a company?

Filed under: European Tech, Startups, Wahanda — Tags: , , , , , — busterbuster @ 3:04 pm

My previous blog post got me thinking about when is the best time to start a company, in terms of when is the best time to start a company that will survive. Is the probability of success higher for companies founded during good times and lower during poor economic times? In thinking about this, inherent in the quotation above “tough time to be at a new startup” is the notion that starting a company in a good time will give you a greater probability of survival.

I only look back to the dot com boom which occurred during a strong economic expansionary period and see that this statement can be turned on its head – if you look statistically at the survival rate of companies that were started in the hey-day boom times of 1998-2000, the failure rate was extremely high, and the losses were spectacular. During these boom times, one can make the case that companies started during good times may be more prone to failure due to the following factors:

  • Easy access to capital for unvetted business plans and continued funding of weak ideas
  • Strong competition from copycats and other competitors
  • Poor management of critical business drivers and lax oversight of costs
  • Delayed recognition of poor performance due to a rising tide boosting all ships
  • Audience first, monetisation later (or even never) strategy
  • Exit by acquisition a higher likelihood

Conversely, companies like ours started in this tougher time have to deal with these factors:

  • Tighter funding markets making those projects that do get funding the ones who have the strongest ideas and teams
  • Lower competition from existing and new players
  • Greater management attention to costs and performance indicators
  • Stronger oversight from investors regarding strategy and performance
  • The need to execute on a business model that drives cashflow and achieves break even as soon as possible
  • The necessity to create a business that can stand on its own two legs for the foreseeable future given the lower likelihood of a white knight coming in to acquire the company

Techcrunch has written an interesting article about how a down time can be an opportunity for startups, and I have to agree wholeheartedly:

This is your time to vault in front of your competition, to earn rapid and sweeping visibility, for a fraction of the time and money that was required to excel during the “good days.” Your rivals are retreating right now, so what are you going to do about it?

(24th minute is where you want to forward to...the remainder involves important VCs telling us how much they enjoy saying "Non" to French entrepreneurs

The last thing I want to say is that I was watching the leWeb Panel video “Money Talks: Getting Financed in a Recession” and something Eric Archambeau (General Partner, Wellington Partners
) said really made me take notice. In looking at 25 years of startup company data from 1980, there is almost an equal probability of being a successful company no matter what year you were founded – regardless of the cycle, regardless of whether its a recession or a great year, the probability of success was uncorrelated with the year in which you were founded (I wonder if that was the case for companies started in 1998-2000, as per my discussion above). Eric says that the implications for a VC are to not stop investing in a down cycle and that you will have an equal probability of spawning a successful company in a down market. Nice. Other panelists included Fred Wilson and Martin Varsavsky.

(24th minute is where you want to forward to…the remainder involves important VCs telling us how much they enjoy saying “Non” to French entrepreneurs

Forward to the 24 minute mark for this illuminating piece of information!

See my recent blog post from Seth Godin that also addresses this topic:
http://busterblog.wordpress.com/2009/07/21/great-advice-from-seth-godin-how-to-approach-challenges-with-the-correct-mindset/

“Tough time to be starting a company”?? Is it really?

Filed under: European Tech, Startups, Wahanda — Tags: , , — busterbuster @ 2:43 pm

Given the recent economic meltdown, I have had many people (from friends & family to former work colleagues and even strangers) say to me:

“Ah, you started your own company…hmmm….tough time to be at a new startup”.

My early reactions to this statement were to shrug my shoulders, grit my teeth and think to myself – “man, you need to really crush this thing and make Wahanda work!”  I was trading stories with my business partner Lopo last week when he told me that he had a similar conversation the previous evening with an ex-Yahoo! colleague of mine.  Lopo’s wife Sandrine was also party to the conversation, and her reaction after hearing the ex-Yahoo! colleague of mine say the infamous line (“yeah, tough time to be at a startup”), later on privately said to Lopo – “Actually, isn’t it a tougher time to be at Yahoo!?”

Sandrine’s comment firstly made me smile, and then totally put things into focus – having left Yahoo! Search Europe in March 2008, I started Wahanda with Lopo to not only capitalise on what we think is a great idea and an underserved opportunity, but also to control our own destiny and create a company where we wanted to work.  My final two years at Yahoo! were marred with downsizings, cost-cutting, rumours, management departures, poor communication from senior execs, bad hires and questionable executive decisions.  Given that Y! is now undergoing another round of layoffs and uncertainty about its future, and given that Wahanda has started gaining traction and is in a good position funding-wise, when now confronted with the infamous line above, I actually confidently respond, “Actually, its a fantastic time to be at Wahanda!”.  I am surprised it wasn’t something that occurred to me before, but thank you Sandrine!

When is the best time to start a company? (click to read my next post)

December 14, 2008

Online Christmas, err, holiday shopping season trends…

Filed under: European Tech, Online retail, Startups — Tags: — busterbuster @ 7:52 pm

In America, Black Friday, which is the day after US Thanksgiving, is famously the busiest shopping day of the year.
Online in the US, “Cyber Monday” – which occurred on Monday, December 1st this year – has traditionally been the busiest shopping day for online sales according to various sources such as Comscore.

As a new online retailer myself through my London based spa & wellness company Wahanda, I was braced for December 1st…until I did some research and found that in the UK, our equivalent of “Cyber Monday”, or “Mega Monday” as some press outlets were calling it, was not supposed to occur until December 8th, one full week later than the US. By the way, is there a UK equivalent of the US Black Friday? And why does our Cyber Monday occur one week later? What’s the “trigger event” in the UK?

Frosty the Snowman 2008 - Carnaby Street, London

The BBC claims that “the peak shopping hour will take place between 1300-1400 GMT when £28m may be spent online in an hour” and that ” the UK’s Christmas online retail sales could reach £13.6bn ($19.9bn)”, so in essence just over 2% of the total Christmas sales would occur in just one hour!. The £28m for one hour of sales is a pretty amazing number, because if you put it into context and assume that the holiday shopping season is about 6 weeks long (or 42 days) and that the holiday spend estimation of £13.6bn was evenly spent over that time period, then each day would represent £32m of sales. Therefore, having £28m of sales in one hour would be exceptional.

Since the beginning of December, at Wahanda we have seen sales continue to increase each week, and while “Mega Monday” was not bad, we have seen that the following Monday was even stronger and that each day has been better than the previous one. Of course being a new company it may be that we will wait until next year to really see the full effect of the Mega Monday effect. Another thing we have thought about is that people may either be spending less, or delaying their purchases as the shift more of their holiday pound online. This same effect is seen increasingly ever year in the travel industry where consumers continue to delay their summer holiday decision and purchase given the ease of booking online and the broad availability of discount offers.

Some interesting other online retail notes we have noticed from both our sales that mirror the articles in the press, and in speaking to other offline & online retailers:

  • Most popular days of the week to buy online: Mon (strongest day by far), Tues, Fri (non travel products) and Sun, although in the last week as we get closer to Christmas, we have seen some encouraging sales on Wed & Thurs which previously were quiet days
  • Most popular times of day to purchase:
    • Weekdays: 8.30-9.30am / lunchtime (which is the busiest by far) / 4-6pm (second strongest interval)
    • Weekends: The sales tend to be heavily weighted to hours before 5pm in November & December
  • As much as 40% of turnover and profit for some online (and offline) retailers occur in the holiday season
  • This I learned from my days at Yahoo! Search, but weather plays a huge role in both traffic and purchases – the worse the weather, the better the online traffic on search, and from what we have seen, the better the conversions on our online retail shop

December 13, 2008

The best leWeb 2008 video I saw of the bunch: European Originals – Start-Up Companies That Are Uniquely European

Filed under: European Tech, Startups — Tags: , , , , — busterbuster @ 9:27 pm

It wasn’t hard, but this was the best video I have seen so far of all of the posted leWeb 2008 videos. The humility on display is in stark contrast to the huge egos seen in some of the other panels, especially when compared to the one with Michael Arrington & Co in The Gillmor Gang video which was frankly embarrassing to watch. I recommend watching this video below – the discussion from the entrepreneurs from the front line was refreshing, inspirational and useful.

See my other blog post on another great video on VCs and investing during a down cycle.

Watch as younger European entrepreneurs behave themselves better than middle-aged American tech bloggers

Watch as younger European entrepreneurs behave themselves better than middle-aged American tech bloggers

http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/961738

European Originals – Start-Up Companies That Are Uniquely European – Panel
Panelists:
* Jacques Antoine Granjon – CEO & Co-Founder, vente-privee.com
* Jonas Birgersson – Chairman, ViaEuropa
* Klaas Kersting -Co-Founder & CEO, Gameforge AG
* Lukasz Gadowski – Founder, Team Europe Ventures Ltd.
* Moderator: Jennifer L.Schenker – Correspondent, BusinessWeek


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